Sonndesfro: voting intentions and perception of the government in Luxembourg (October 2025)
Methodology
The survey questioned 1,825 people of voting age, using a combination of telephone interviews (1,151 people, including 302 on landlines and 849 on mobiles) and online questionnaires (674 people). The sample was weighted to reflect the distribution of the population by age, gender and region. This approach ensures that the different voter profiles are represented and that the diversity of opinions is captured.
Voting intentions and seat projections
According to the poll, the CSV has fallen sharply in public opinion, with 25.3% of voting intentions, down 4.6 points from the October 2023 general election. The DP remains relatively stable (19.7%, +0.5 points), while the ADR rises to 11.6% (+2.1). The LSAP stands at 18.7% (+0.6), the Greens at 9.3% (+1), and Déi Lénk at 5.9% (+2.3). The Pirates obtain 4.4% (-0.9).
Transposed into seats out of 60 for a hypothetical election:
- CSV : 17 seats (-4)
- DP : 14 seats (stable)
- LSAP : 13 seats (+2)
- Déi Gréng : 5 seats (+1)
- ADR : 7 seats ( +2)
- Déi Lénk : 2 seats (stable)
- Pirates : 2 seats (-1)
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The current coalition (CSV + DP) would win 31 seats, just above the absolute majority, while the opposition would win a total of 29 seats.
Political analysis
The decline in popularity of the CSV can be explained in particular by the conflict with the trade unions and the perception of the government’s approach to pension reform. The majority of respondents indicate that reform decisions should not be taken without prior agreement with the social partners: 63% of those surveyed share this opinion.
The DP, by contrast, benefited from its position as mediator in the conflict, losing only 1.3 points since May 2025 and retaining its 14 seats. The parties at the extremes made gains: ADR and Déi Lénk won 2 and 1 seats respectively, reflecting a shift by some voters towards more radical options.
Perception of social issues
The survey also explores several specific topics :
- Pensions : Only 12% of respondents consider the government’s decision justified without agreement with trade unions and employers. Opposition is particularly strong among 18–24-year-olds (70% partially or totally disagree).
- Abortion : 70% of respondents believe that the right to abortion should be enshrined in the Constitution, with stronger support among 25–34-year-olds (60% in complete agreement).
- Defence expenditure : 68% of respondents support an increase in military spending in response to a perceived threat from Russia. Rejection is higher among ADR voters (29%).
- Business hours : Opinion is divided, with nearly 50% in favour and 48% against flexible working hours.
Generational and electorate reading
Young voters are more critical of the government’s approach to pensions and less supportive of certain decisions, while older voters are generally more conciliatory. Partisan differences remain marked: ADR and Déi Lénk voters express the strongest disagreement with the handling of pension reform, while CSV voters are less unanimous on abortion and defence.
Historical comparison
Compared to the previous edition in May 2025, the CSV lost 3.8 points, the DP lost 1.3 points, the ADR gained 2.3 points and the LSAP gained 0.8 points. Since the general elections in October 2023, the governing coalition has lost four seats, while the opposition has gained 4.
Conclusion
The Sonndesfro poll conducted in October 2025 shows a decline in support for the governing coalition, mainly due to disagreements over pension reform and tensions with trade unions. Opposition parties and extremist groups are taking advantage of this situation, while Luxembourg society is expressing clear positions on major social issues such as abortion and national defence. These results provide an accurate snapshot of public opinion and current political trends in Luxembourg, which is useful for internal reflection and preparation for upcoming electoral debates.
Would you like to learn more about other key topics or find out how Luxembourg politicians are perceived? Consult the full reports published by RTL et Luxemburger Wort or download the presentation here.
